Steve Hilton Polls: Latest Numbers vs Becerra (2026)
Steve Hilton is the leading Republican in the 2026 California governor race. Here are the latest polls, Polymarket odds, and the realistic path to November.
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Quick answer
Latest public poll as of October 13, 2026: the Manhattan Institute survey of 1,000 likely California voters (fielded September 24 to October 1, 2026; released October 9) has Xavier Becerra at 55% and Steve Hilton at 38%, with 7% undecided. Hilton finished second in California's June 2, 2026 top-two primary with 24.6% and is the Republican on the November 3 ballot. The four public polls fielded since September put him 10 to 25 points behind Becerra. For the market's view, see the live widget above.
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Last checked October 27, 2026
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Kalshi lists event contracts on the California governor race when a market is open. New users: Trade $25 and Get $25 with code VENICE.
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Key takeaways
- Hilton is at 33% to 38% in the four public polls fielded between September 4 and October 2, 2026.
- Prediction markets price Hilton as a long shot; check the live price before you trade.
- His path to 47% needs a large share of independents and Democrats, which the polls above do not show.
- The only head-to-head debate with Becerra was held on September 30, 2026 (CNN). Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Who is Steve Hilton?
Steve Hilton — former Fox News host, ex-David Cameron strategist, Bay Area resident — finished second in the June 2, 2026 California top-two primary with 24.6%. Polymarket prices him as a long shot to win the November general election (live widget above). Public polls fielded since September have him 10 to 25 points behind Xavier Becerra head-to-head, which leaves a narrow path to victory.
The polling picture
Latest public polls of the Becerra-Hilton general election, newest first. Figures are taken from each pollster's own release.
| Poll | Field dates | Sample | Becerra | Hilton | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manhattan Institute | Sep 24 to Oct 1, 2026 | 1,000 likely voters | 55% | 38% | Becerra +17 |
| Independent Voter Project | Sep 23 to Oct 2, 2026 | 2,906 likely voters | 48% | 38% | Becerra +10 |
| UC Berkeley IGS | Sep 15 to 20, 2026 | 4,512 likely voters | 58% | 33% | Becerra +25 |
| PPIC | Sep 4 to 10, 2026 | 1,103 likely voters | 60% | 38% | Becerra +22 |
| UC Berkeley IGS (earlier reading) | Aug 3 to 9, 2026 | 2,310 likely voters | 55% | 37% | Becerra +18 |
Sources: Manhattan Institute (opens in a new tab) (released October 9, 2026), Independent Voter Project (opens in a new tab) (October 4, 2026), UC Berkeley IGS Poll (opens in a new tab) (releases of September 24 and August 2026) and the PPIC Statewide Survey (opens in a new tab) (September 2026). Primary result: California Secretary of State, Statement of Vote (opens in a new tab). We found no public poll of this race fielded after October 2, 2026. Last checked: October 13, 2026.
Hilton has stayed between 33% and 38% in these polls, while Becerra has ranged from 48% to 60%.
Market odds vs polling reality
Prediction markets price Hilton as a long shot, which matches polls that show him 10 to 25 points behind Becerra. A market price can still sit above a poll-based estimate, because traders also price the chance of a late event that changes the race. Prices move daily, so check the live price on the exchange before you trade; we do not quote one here.
His realistic path to 47%+
- Hold the Republican base, the 33% to 38% he polls at now
- Win a clear majority of independents
- Pull a meaningful share of registered Democrats, which is only realistic if the race changes sharply
- Improve on recent Republican results with Latino voters; that is not visible in the polls above
What could move his price
- A new public poll that shows the gap closing or widening
- A major endorsement
- News that damages either candidate
- Mail-ballot return figures by party as November 3, 2026 approaches
Trader takeaway
The polls have been stable: Hilton between 33% and 38%, Becerra between 48% and 60%. A long-shot contract can move a lot on a single poll or headline and then drift back, so decide your entry and exit before you trade and only risk money you can afford to lose.
$25 Kalshi bonus with code VENICEClaim (opens in a new tab)Sources & references
- UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies Poll (opens in a new tab) — IGS, UC Berkeley
- Public Policy Institute of California — Statewide Survey (opens in a new tab) — PPIC.org
- Los Angeles Times — California politics coverage (opens in a new tab) — Los Angeles Times
- CalMatters — Nonpartisan California news (opens in a new tab) — CalMatters
- California Secretary of State — Elections (opens in a new tab) — sos.ca.gov
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission: Event Contracts (opens in a new tab), CFTC.gov
External links open in a new tab. We cite primary regulatory and major news sources where possible. Citations to trusted regulators (CFTC, SEC, IRS, NOAA, .gov, .edu) are dofollow; commercial outbound links are not endorsements.
Frequently asked questions
Did Steve Hilton win his primary?
Has any Republican won California governor since 2006?
Where can I trade Steve Hilton contracts in California?
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18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
