Steve Hilton Polls: Can He Win the GOP Slot in California?
Steve Hilton is the leading Republican in the 2026 California governor race. Here are the latest polls, Polymarket odds, and the realistic path to November.
- Hilton is polling 31–37%, near the modern California GOP statewide floor.
- Polymarket: single-digit cents on Hilton — still ~3x the polling-implied probability.
- Realistic path to 47% requires 8–10% Democratic crossover plus a Latino swing.
- Only one scheduled debate with Becerra (Oct 13, 2026) — biggest single price catalyst.
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Quick answer
Steve Hilton — former Fox News host, ex-David Cameron strategist, Bay Area resident — finished second in the June 2, 2026 California top-two primary with 17.4%. Polymarket prices him in the single-digit cents to win the November general election (live widget above). Polling has him 26–32 points behind Xavier Becerra head-to-head, well within historical California GOP territory but with a narrow path to victory.
Polling shown in the table below is sourced from public releases by UC Berkeley IGS, PPIC, Emerson and Inside California Politics / Co/efficient. [source: PPIC Statewide Survey]
The polling picture
| Poll | Date | Hilton | Becerra | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley IGS / LA Times | Jun 6, 2026 | 33% | 59% | Becerra +26 |
| PPIC | May 24, 2026 | 31% | 61% | Becerra +30 |
| Emerson | May 19, 2026 | 34% | 57% | Becerra +23 |
| Inside CA Politics / Co/efficient (R) | Jun 1, 2026 | 37% | 53% | Becerra +16 |
Hilton has been remarkably stable at 31–37%. That's the modern California GOP statewide floor — roughly the share Brian Dahle hit in 2022. The question is whether he can grow it by 5–8 points or whether 37% is the ceiling.
Polymarket odds vs polling reality
Polymarket's 9¢ price implies ~9% chance of victory — meaningfully more bullish than the polls suggest. The market is partly pricing the chance of a major late-cycle event (national political environment shift, scandal involving Becerra, Trump administration California stand-off) that could compress the spread.
His realistic path to 47%+
- 1.Hold the GOP base at 37–38%
- 2.Win independents 55-45 (Dahle won them 49-51 in 2022 — a 6-point swing)
- 3.Pull 8–10% of registered Democrats — only realistic if Becerra has a major scandal or Hilton wins a debate decisively
- 4.Drive Latino voter share to 45% Republican — possible given 2024 trends but not yet visible in polling
What would actually move his Polymarket price
- •Major endorsement from a Latino political figure — +1.5¢
- •Strong debate performance against Becerra (only one scheduled, Oct 13) — +2–4¢
- •A Becerra scandal — +4–8¢ depending on severity
- •Continued LA homelessness or wildfire mismanagement headlines — slow drift +0.5¢/wk
Trader takeaway
9¢ is fair-to-slightly-rich given the polling. The trade is to sell Hilton on any rally above 12¢ (typical reaction to a single good poll or debate prep buzz) and buy back below 7¢. The structural ceiling is ~15¢ without a major Becerra event.
Last reviewed by Catie Di Stefano on August 7, 2026. We re-verify market prices, polling, and citations on every update.
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Sources & references
- 1.UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies Poll — IGS, UC Berkeley
- 2.Public Policy Institute of California — Statewide Survey — PPIC.org
- 3.Los Angeles Times — California politics coverage — Los Angeles Times
- 4.CalMatters — Nonpartisan California news — CalMatters
- 5.California Secretary of State — Elections — sos.ca.gov
- 6.Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Event Contracts — CFTC.gov
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Catie Di Stefano has spent 15 years working with online gambling across some of the most regulated and competitive gambling markets in the world.
Starting at Betsson Group in Malta in 2011, she has in recent years worked her way through VIP management, CRM, gamification and marketing leadership across European and North American operations. Catie was a licensed consultancy for Hard Rock Casino in New Jersey, where she held a DGE vendor license and owned the execution of the online CRM program from launch day in 2018.