LA Mayor Race 2026: Karen Bass vs Nithya Raman and How Prediction Markets Settle

Key dates for Los Angeles voters

Date	What happens	Why it matters
June 2, 2026	Primary nominating election	Produced the mayor and city attorney runoffs and settled Council District 11.
October 1	Los Angeles County mails vote-by-mail ballots and opens official drop boxes	Every registered voter is sent a ballot. State law requires counties to begin mailing no later than October 5.
October 19	Last day to register to vote	Also the last day to register and still be mailed a ballot.
October 20 to November 3	Conditional (same-day) voter registration	Eligible county residents who missed the deadline can register and vote at any vote center.
October 24	Select vote centers open in Los Angeles County	You can vote in person at any vote center in the county, not only one near home.
October 27	Last day to request a replacement vote-by-mail ballot	After this, vote in person at a vote center.
October 31	All vote centers open	The full network runs through Election Day.
November 3	Election Day, voting from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.	Mailed ballots must be postmarked by this day; drop-box and in-person returns close at 8:00 p.m.
November 10	Last day for a mailed ballot postmarked by Election Day to arrive	Close contests can stay uncalled while these ballots are counted.
November 27	County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk tentatively scheduled to certify results	The county's certified count is the official result for city contests.
December 1	Board of Supervisors scheduled to declare the election concluded	Formal close of the county canvass.
December 3	Legal deadline for counties to certify	The latest date the official canvass can finish.
December 11	Secretary of State certifies the statewide Statement of Vote	Applies to the governor's race and the state propositions.
December 14	New four-year terms begin for mayor and city attorney	Set by the City Charter.

Who is on the ballot for Los Angeles mayor?

Two names: Karen Bass, the incumbent mayor, and Nithya Raman, the city councilmember for District 4. Los Angeles city offices are nonpartisan, so the top two finishers in the primary advance when nobody wins a majority. Fourteen candidates were certified for the June 2 primary. Bass finished first and Raman second, with Spencer Pratt third. Ballotpedia notes that Bass is the first incumbent mayor to face a runoff since 2005.

This page does not forecast the result or rate either candidate. For what each one proposes, use the candidates' own materials and the official voter information pamphlet from the City Clerk.

What else is on a Venice ballot?

City attorney

Marissa Roy, a deputy attorney general, faces John McKinney, a deputy district attorney. Four candidates ran in June, including City Attorney Hydee Feldstein Soto, who finished third.

City Council District 11

Venice sits in the 11th District. Traci Park won the seat outright in June against one challenger, so Venice voters have no council contest in November.

City and county measures

• Proposition TE: Property Transfer Tax Exemption for Victims of the January 2025 Fire Disaster.
• Charter Amendment LA: City Infrastructure, Budget, Finance, and Contracting.
• Charter Amendment PL: City Planning Department.
• Charter Amendment EE: City Ethics, Elections, and Governance.
• Charter Amendment PRK: City Department of Recreation and Parks Budget.
• Charter Amendment PRT: City Airports, Harbor, and Water and Power Departments.
• Charter Amendment SC: Campaign Finance Rules Related to Board of Education Elections.
• Initiative Ordinance FD: Funding for the Los Angeles Fire Department Through a One-Half Percent Sales Tax.
• County Measure A: a charter amendment on good-faith negotiation and binding arbitration for public safety employee disputes.
• County Measure E: a charter amendment on the county Ethics Commission and community investment budget allocation.

County and state contests

The Los Angeles County sheriff's race is a runoff between Robert G. Luna and Alex Villanueva. Statewide, voters choose a governor and decide 14 propositions. Our guides to the California governor's race and the 14 state propositions cover those. Your official sample ballot from the county lists every contest for your address.

How an LA mayor contract settles

Each contract is a Yes or No question about one outcome. A correct Yes pays $1 per contract and a wrong one pays $0. The price you pay moves with other traders' orders, and no article can tell you what it will be when you open the app. We do not quote prices here.

• Kalshi, winner market: the rule reads, "If Karen Bass wins the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election, then the market resolves to Yes," with a matching contract for Nithya Raman. Kalshi's market data says the market can close early once the event occurs, and it names election officials, including the relevant county clerk or board of elections and the city clerk, among its source agencies.
• Kalshi, margin of victory: the margin is the candidate's vote share minus the share of the candidate immediately behind, with no rounding. The market can close early once certified results are published.
• Kalshi, combination market: every listed outcome has to happen. If one part fails, the whole contract resolves to No.
• Polymarket US, winner market: the rule reads, "If Karen Bass wins the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election this market will settle to Yes. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities." A matching contract covers Nithya Raman.
• Polymarket US, margin of victory: calculated as the difference in vote share between the first-place and second-place candidates, using valid votes, with the outcome sourced from election authorities.

Practical points before you trade a local race

• Confirm the listing first. Platform access and a specific market are separate questions. Not every local contest is listed, and listings change.
• Read the full rule, not the headline. A winner market, a margin market and a combination market on the same race can settle differently.
• Expect thinner trading than in national markets. A limit order lets you set the most you will pay, which matters more when fewer orders are resting in the book.
• Size for a total loss. If the contract resolves against you, you lose what you paid for it.

Kalshi's and Polymarket US's minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+. For this race, start with Kalshi, then Polymarket US. Our how to trade guide walks through order types, and the responsible trading page covers limits and help lines.

Frequently asked questions

Who is running for LA mayor in November 2026?

Mayor Karen Bass and City Councilmember Nithya Raman. They finished first and second in the June 2 primary, where no candidate won a majority. The office is nonpartisan.

When is the LA mayor runoff?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026, the same day as California's statewide general election. Voting runs from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m., and every registered voter in Los Angeles County is mailed a ballot beforehand.

When do vote centers open in LA County?

Select vote centers open on Saturday, October 24, 2026, and all vote centers open on Saturday, October 31. They stay open through Election Day, and you can use any vote center in the county.

Is Rick Caruso or Spencer Pratt on the November ballot for mayor?

Neither is. Rick Caruso was not among the 14 candidates certified for the June primary. Spencer Pratt ran and finished third, so he did not advance. Only Karen Bass and Nithya Raman are on the November ballot for mayor.

Is Venice's City Council seat on the November ballot?

It is not. Traci Park won Council District 11 outright in the June primary against one challenger. Venice voters still decide the mayor and city attorney runoffs, the county sheriff's race, and city, county and state measures.

Who is running for LA city attorney?

Marissa Roy, a deputy attorney general, and John McKinney, a deputy district attorney. The incumbent, Hydee Feldstein Soto, finished third in the June primary and did not advance.

How does an LA mayor prediction market contract settle?

A winner contract pays $1 if the named candidate wins the election and $0 if not. Kalshi and Polymarket US both tie settlement to the result reported by election authorities, so a close race may not settle until the count is official. Margin-of-victory and combination markets have their own rules. If you are in Los Angeles, check our California status guide and confirm the listing in the app before you trade.