LA Mayor 2026 Prediction Markets: Bass vs Raman Live Odds
Karen Bass vs Nithya Raman is now the two-horse race for LA Mayor 2026. Live odds from Polymarket, Kalshi and Robinhood, key dates, and how to trade it.
- Bass around 60–64¢, Raman around 30–36¢ on Polymarket; Kalshi is within 2¢.
- Rick Caruso publicly declined to run in April 2026, collapsing the market into a two-way race.
- Robinhood surfaces Kalshi's LA Mayor contract for US customers 18+ (CA included).
- Primary already resolved March 3, 2026; general election is November 3, 2026.
- LA-specific contracts trade thin — use limit orders and expect $500–$3K at the top of book.
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Quick answer
Karen Bass is the modest favorite in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election, trading around 60–64¢ on Polymarket and Kalshi against Councilmember Nithya Raman in the 30s. Rick Caruso ruled out a run in April 2026, and Bass–Raman is now the live two-way market ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. [source: UC Berkeley IGS Poll]
How the field collapsed to two
The 2026 LA mayoral race went from crowded to bilateral in six weeks. Rick Caruso — who spent $100M in 2022 — publicly declined in April, telling the LA Times he'd focus on Steadfast LA's wildfire-recovery work. Traci Park pulled her exploratory committee. Joe Buscaino stayed in but hasn't broken 4% in any published poll. That leaves incumbent Karen Bass against Councilmember Nithya Raman, a progressive who represents CD-4 (Hollywood, Silver Lake, Sherman Oaks).
Where each platform prices it
| Platform | Bass | Raman | Other | Depth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 62¢ | 33¢ | 5¢ | ~$80K OI |
| Kalshi | 63¢ | 32¢ | 5¢ | $40–120K |
| Robinhood (via Kalshi) | 63¢ | 32¢ | — | same book as Kalshi |
Key dates
- •March 3, 2026 — Primary (already resolved; Bass 48%, Raman 31%, no majority so both advance)
- •September 5, 2026 — Ballot certification
- •October 6, 2026 — Vote-by-mail ballots begin arriving
- •November 3, 2026 — General election day
- •Late November 2026 — Certification and market settlement
How to trade the race
- 1.On Kalshi (or Robinhood, which surfaces the same book): search 'LA Mayor 2026' — the two-way YES/NO contract on Bass is the cleanest expression.
- 2.On Polymarket: the multi-outcome 'Los Angeles Mayoral Election' market gives you Bass, Raman, and 'Other' — use it if you want to fade both frontrunners.
- 3.Use limit orders. Depth at the inside quote is $500–$3K on Polymarket, deeper on Kalshi as election day nears.
- 4.Watch the LA Times / IGS poll cadence (roughly monthly from August) — it's the single biggest price mover.
What moves the price from here
- •A second major wildfire in Sep–Nov 2026 — Bass drops 8–12¢
- •Olympics-prep setback (venue delay, security incident) — Bass drops 4–6¢
- •Raman consolidates SEIU + Working Families endorsements — Raman up 6–10¢
- •Homelessness count published in November shows a decline — Bass up 5–8¢
Last reviewed by Catie Di Stefano on August 5, 2026. We re-verify market prices, polling, and citations on every update.
Frequently Asked Questions
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Sources & references
- 1.Los Angeles Times — California politics coverage — Los Angeles Times
- 2.UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies Poll — IGS, UC Berkeley
- 3.CalMatters — Nonpartisan California news — CalMatters
- 4.Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Event Contracts — CFTC.gov
- 5.Kalshi wins court battle to offer election contracts — Reuters
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Catie Di Stefano has spent 15 years working with online gambling across some of the most regulated and competitive gambling markets in the world.
Starting at Betsson Group in Malta in 2011, she has in recent years worked her way through VIP management, CRM, gamification and marketing leadership across European and North American operations. Catie was a licensed consultancy for Hard Rock Casino in New Jersey, where she held a DGE vendor license and owned the execution of the online CRM program from launch day in 2018.