LA mayor runoff 2026: Bass vs Raman with two weeks to go
Karen Bass faces Nithya Raman on 3 November. What the September poll says, the key voting dates for Venice, and how LA mayor markets settle.
Venice Beach · Los Angeles
Status in California: Available, dispute pending (as of 13 October 2026). Daily prices, ranked apps and guides for Los Angeles.
Polymarket US · Deposit $10 get a $25 Trading Bonus! · code VENICE
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
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Quick answer
Available, dispute pending (as of 13 October 2026). Kalshi, Polymarket US and ProphetX accept eligible Californians, but the Ninth Circuit ruled on 28 Aug 2026 (preliminary stage) that Kalshi had not shown federal law overrides state gaming law for sports contracts, and Kalshi has switched off its markets on three tribes' lands. Kalshi's and Polymarket US's minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+.
Venice Predictions covers what Los Angeles is pricing, from the Westside to the Valley to Long Beach: LA sports (Dodgers, Lakers, Rams, Chargers, LAFC), Hollywood (Oscars, box office, awards season), LA politics (the Bass vs Raman mayor runoff and the governor race on 3 November), LA weather (rain season, fire weather) and big LA events like the 2028 Olympics.
Live prices
Prices from Kalshi and Polymarket US, updated once a day.
99th Academy Awards: Best Picture (opens in a new tab)
The Odyssey
Trade on Polymarket US 47.5% (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi 51% (opens in a new tab)
California Governor Election 2026 (opens in a new tab)
Xavier Becerra
Trade on Polymarket US 97% (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi 96.4% (opens in a new tab)
99th Academy Awards: Best Actor (opens in a new tab)
John Malkovich
Trade on Polymarket US 41.1% (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi 41% (opens in a new tab)
Oscar nominees: Best Picture (opens in a new tab)
The Odyssey
Trade on Polymarket US – (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi 97% (opens in a new tab)
Dancing with the Stars Season 35 winner (opens in a new tab)
Ezra Frech
Trade on Polymarket US 62.5% (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi 63% (opens in a new tab)
2026 Game Awards: Game of the Year (opens in a new tab)
Grand Theft Auto VI
Trade on Polymarket US 84% (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi 82% (opens in a new tab)
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
48 states + D.C.
Polymarket US Deposit $10 get a $25 Trading Bonus!
The US Polymarket app, run on a CFTC-designated exchange
Use code VENICE
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
47 states + D.C.
Kalshi Trade $25 and Get $25!
CFTC-designated exchange for event contracts
Use code VENICE
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Ranked & reviewed
Plain-English breakdowns for LA traders, tested with real money. From your first contract to advanced investor.
Our top pick
The US Polymarket app, run on a CFTC-designated exchange
48 states + D.C.
Deposit $10 get a $25 Trading Bonus!
Sign up at Polymarket US (opens in a new tab)Use code VENICE
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
CFTC-designated exchange for event contracts
47 states + D.C.
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Sign up at Kalshi (opens in a new tab)Use code VENICE
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
CFTC-designated exchange, on web and mobile
49 states + D.C.
Trade $50, Earn $75!
Sign up at ProphetX (opens in a new tab)Use code VENICE
New users only. T&Cs apply. ProphetX's minimum age is 18 (or the local age of majority if higher); we recommend 21+. Not available in Nevada. Trading involves risk.
Sports event contracts on a CFTC-designated exchange
47 states + D.C.
Deposit $10 Get $50 in Trade Credits!
Sign up at Novig (opens in a new tab)Use code VENICE
Restrictions & requirements apply. Not available in all states. 21+. Event contract trading involves risk & is not appropriate for all. Consider if it's appropriate for you in light of financial circumstances. See novig.com/terms for information.
Status in Los Angeles: Available, dispute pending (as of 13 October 2026). CFTC-regulated exchanges accept eligible Californians; the Ninth Circuit's 2026 rulings mean state gambling law may apply to sports contracts. Our legality page keeps a dated log of every change.
Read the full breakdownLearn the edge
Plain-English breakdowns for LA traders — from your first contract to advanced edges.
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Karen Bass faces Nithya Raman on 3 November. What the September poll says, the key voting dates for Venice, and how LA mayor markets settle.
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Earthquake event contracts use precise magnitude, location, deadline and data-source rules. Listings change, and earthquakes cannot be forecast day to day, so compare any current contract with USGS long-term base rates and read its settlement terms.
LA 2028 prediction-market listings remain limited and can change. The Games open July 14, 2028, with the Opening Ceremony shared by the LA Memorial Coliseum and SoFi Stadium. Verify current US-platform listings before trading.
Prediction markets can price the next James Bond differently because their deadlines, resolution sources and liquidity differ. No casting claim should be treated as confirmed until the studio announces it.
A look back at the contracts that moved most on September 28, 2026, what drove each move and what it shows about how prediction market prices react to news.
Influencer prediction markets are event contracts on creator outcomes: YouTube subscriber milestones, Streamer Awards winners, Spotify chart positions and even words a creator says on camera. Kalshi lists many of them, including culture markets such as Streamer of the Year. Check the live price in the app.
California House races 2026: how Prop 50 changed the map, which districts are competitive and how election event contracts settle. For readers 21+.
California ballot measures 2026 add up to 14 statewide propositions on the November 3 ballot: Props 1 to 5 and 37 to 45. Some platforms may list contracts on ballot measures. Listings and prices change, so verify availability in the regulated US app and read the settlement rules before trading.
Top prediction markets by 24-hour trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket, refreshed every page load. Free for journalists and researchers — please cite us.
Status: Available, dispute pending (as of 13 October 2026), if you are eligible. Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges that accept Californians, including in LA; the courts are still deciding whether state gambling law applies to sports contracts. Kalshi has switched off its markets on the lands of three California tribes. Kalshi's and Polymarket US's minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+. Full details and a dated change log are on our LA legality page.
Kalshi and Polymarket US list markets on LA teams (Dodgers, Lakers, Rams, Chargers, LAFC), Hollywood awards and box office, the LA mayor runoff and California governor race on 3 November 2026, and weather such as LA temperatures and rainfall. Which markets are open changes daily; check the app before you trade.
Polymarket US is our first pick for LA. Kalshi is second: it works on web, iPhone and Android and lists politics, sports and awards markets. ProphetX is third (sports). Current offers and their terms are on the cards above. Kalshi's and Polymarket US's minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where you buy and sell Yes/No event contracts that pay $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn't. Prices move between 1¢ and 99¢ as traders buy and sell. You deposit US dollars, place orders much like a stock trade, and withdraw to your bank.
Kalshi (KalshiEX LLC) has been a CFTC-designated contract market since 4 November 2020. Its order book and settlements are overseen by the CFTC. Our Kalshi review covers how we tested deposits, trades and withdrawals.
Keep exploring
Top apps Kalshi in LA LA sports LA politics How to trade Glossary
Polymarket US · Deposit $10 get a $25 Trading Bonus! · code VENICE
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.