California Governor Race 2026: Candidates, Polls & Live Odds
The complete pillar guide to the 2026 California governor race — every major candidate, the latest polling, primary results, and Polymarket's live odds through Election Day.
- Two-candidate general: Becerra (D) vs Hilton (R) after the June 2, 2026 top-two primary.
- Polling: Becerra +26 to +30 across IGS, PPIC, Emerson — stable since April.
- Polymarket: Becerra heavy favorite, Hilton in single digits, field rounded out by Steyer (named-candidate market, $24M+ volume) — see live widget for current cents.
- Pillar article — links out to every candidate-specific guide in this cluster.
- Resolution: certified by the California Secretary of State, election night Nov 3, 2026.
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Quick answer
California's 2026 governor race fills Gavin Newsom's open seat (he's term-limited). The June 2 top-two primary sent former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra (D) and former Fox host Steve Hilton (R) to the November 3, 2026 general. Polymarket prices Becerra as the heavy favorite, Tom Steyer as the main long shot, and Hilton in the single-digit cents — the live widget above shows current pricing. The most-traded political market in California history sits at $24M+ in volume.
Candidate filing, certified primary results and the November 3 general election date come from the California Secretary of State elections division. [source: California Secretary of State — Elections]
The candidates who survived the primary
Xavier Becerra (D) — front-runner
Former US HHS Secretary under Biden, former California AG, former 12-term US Representative from Los Angeles. Won the June 2 primary with 31.4%. Has the labor coalition (SEIU-USWW, CTA, CNA), most of the state Democratic establishment, and the largest cash on hand ($28M as of May 31).
Steve Hilton (R) — challenger
Ex-Fox News host, former David Cameron strategist, San Francisco resident. Finished second at 17.4%, consolidating the Republican vote after Chad Bianco endorsed him. Has run on housing affordability, homelessness, and pulling the state's regulatory burden.
Tom Steyer (D, possible independent) — wild card
Billionaire former hedge-fund founder, 2020 presidential candidate. Finished fourth in the primary at 11%. Has not conceded; legal team is exploring an independent November run on a 'clean economy + insurance reform' platform. Polymarket gives the indy run 31% to actually materialize.
Latest polling (head-to-head)
| Poll | Date | Becerra | Hilton | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley IGS | Jun 6, 2026 | 59% | 33% | +26 |
| PPIC | May 24, 2026 | 61% | 31% | +30 |
| Emerson | May 19, 2026 | 57% | 34% | +23 |
| Three-way w/ Steyer indy | Jun 6, 2026 | 47% | 29% | Steyer 19% |
Live Polymarket odds
Polymarket's California Governor Election Winner market has traded $24.1M in volume. It's the single deepest state-level political contract on the platform, period. Prices update in real time as orders fill.
Key dates from here to November
- •June 29, 2026 — Candidate paperwork deadline for independent / write-in November bids
- •Aug 3, 2026 — Final fundraising quarterly report (Q2)
- •Sept 8, 2026 — Vote-by-mail ballots begin being sent
- •Oct 13, 2026 — Only scheduled televised gubernatorial debate (KQED + Univision)
- •Oct 20, 2026 — Early in-person voting begins in most counties
- •Nov 3, 2026 — Election Day
- •Nov 4–10, 2026 — Polymarket / Kalshi markets typically resolve within 24h of AP call
How to trade this market in California
Polymarket is legal for California residents. The standard playbook for a heavy-favorite race like this:
- 1.Use limit orders, not market orders — spreads on this market are 1¢ inside quote
- 2.Watch the Steyer indy decision (due by July 1) — Becerra drops 8–12¢ if Steyer is on the November ballot
- 3.Debate-night liquidity spikes 5x; many sharps wait for that volatility window
- 4.Avoid buying within 48h of resolution — pricing pinches and roll-off risk increases
The Kalshi alternative
Kalshi lists a party-control binary (Democrat wins California governor vs Republican wins) — currently 91¢ for Democrat. Less granular than Polymarket but US-regulated under the CFTC, easier for tax docs. Trading either market is legal in California.
Last reviewed by Catie Di Stefano on August 5, 2026. We re-verify market prices, polling, and citations on every update.
Frequently Asked Questions
Related guides
Pillar pages
Sources & references
- 1.California Secretary of State — Elections — sos.ca.gov
- 2.Public Policy Institute of California — Statewide Survey — PPIC.org
- 3.UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies Poll — IGS, UC Berkeley
- 4.Los Angeles Times — California politics coverage — Los Angeles Times
- 5.CalMatters — Nonpartisan California news — CalMatters
- 6.Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Event Contracts — CFTC.gov
External links open in a new tab. We cite primary regulatory and major news sources where possible. Citations to trusted regulators (CFTC, SEC, IRS, NOAA, .gov, .edu) are dofollow; commercial outbound links are not endorsements.
Catie Di Stefano has spent 15 years working with online gambling across some of the most regulated and competitive gambling markets in the world.
Starting at Betsson Group in Malta in 2011, she has in recent years worked her way through VIP management, CRM, gamification and marketing leadership across European and North American operations. Catie was a licensed consultancy for Hard Rock Casino in New Jersey, where she held a DGE vendor license and owned the execution of the online CRM program from launch day in 2018.