Karen Bass Approval Rating & LA Mayor 2026 Odds
Karen Bass's approval has slipped post-wildfires. Here's where her numbers stand, who might challenge her, and what the prediction markets are pricing for a 2026 LA mayoral re-election.
- Bass's approval is at 41% / 49% (LA Times / IGS, May 2026), down 15 points since the January 2025 fires.
- Polymarket prices her re-election around 60¢ — historically low for an LA incumbent.
- Rick Caruso entry is the single biggest price driver (undeclared as of June 12).
- Market depth on LA-specific contracts is thin ($500–$3K at the inside quote); use limit orders.
Affiliate disclosure: We may earn a commission if you sign up through links on this page, at no extra cost to you. This doesn't influence our editorial content.
Quick answer
Karen Bass's approval rating sits at 41% favorable / 49% unfavorable in the most recent LA Times / UC Berkeley IGS poll (May 2026), down from 56% before the January 2025 wildfires. Polymarket's LA mayoral re-election market (early liquidity, ~$80K open interest) prices Bass in the low-60¢ range to win re-election in November 2026 — the live widget above shows the current price. [source: Berkeley IGS Poll]
Why her numbers slipped
Three factors compound: the perceived response to the January 2025 Palisades / Eaton wildfires, persistent homelessness visibility despite Inside Safe expansion, and the Olympic-prep timeline that puts every street-repair complaint under a spotlight. Bass is still favored — incumbency in LA is worth ~10 points — but her path is narrower than expected.
Approval trajectory
| Poll date | Approve | Disapprove | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2024 (LATimes/IGS) | 56% | 31% | +25 |
| Mar 2025 (post-fires) | 39% | 52% | -13 |
| Sept 2025 (LATimes/IGS) | 44% | 47% | -3 |
| May 2026 (LATimes/IGS) | 41% | 49% | -8 |
The 2026 field
- •Karen Bass (incumbent, D) — running, has the institutional D establishment
- •Rick Caruso (D, formerly nonpartisan) — has not declared but has polled openly; cleared $100M in 2022 and could match in 2026
- •Traci Park (D, councilmember) — exploratory committee opened in April
- •Joe Buscaino (R/Indy) — soft-launched a campaign in San Pedro
- •Wild card: a celebrity entry. Each cycle one shows up — usually fades by August
Prediction-market reading
Polymarket's market is still thin, so prices move fast. A low-60¢ implied probability for Bass implies a ~40% chance of a challenger winning — historically rich for an LA incumbent. The market is essentially pricing Caruso entering and consolidating the anti-Bass coalition.
What would move Bass's price meaningfully
- 1.Caruso officially declines to run — Bass jumps to 78–82¢ overnight
- 2.Caruso officially enters — Bass drops to 50–54¢
- 3.A second major fire in the Sept–Nov 2026 window — drops 8–12¢ depending on response
- 4.An Olympics readiness setback (venue delay, security incident) — drops 4–6¢
How to trade an LA-specific market
City races on Polymarket have thin order books — usually $500–$3,000 of depth at the inside quote. Use limit orders, not market orders. Liquidity deepens dramatically in the final 8 weeks before the election. If Polymarket doesn't have your specific contract, Kalshi often opens a mayoral market closer to filing deadlines.
Last reviewed by Catie Di Stefano on August 5, 2026. We re-verify market prices, polling, and citations on every update.
Frequently Asked Questions
Related guides
Pillar pages
Sources & references
- 1.Los Angeles Times — California politics coverage — Los Angeles Times
- 2.UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies Poll — IGS, UC Berkeley
- 3.Public Policy Institute of California — Statewide Survey — PPIC.org
- 4.CalMatters — Nonpartisan California news — CalMatters
- 5.Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Event Contracts — CFTC.gov
External links open in a new tab. We cite primary regulatory and major news sources where possible. Citations to trusted regulators (CFTC, SEC, IRS, NOAA, .gov, .edu) are dofollow; commercial outbound links are not endorsements.
Catie Di Stefano has spent 15 years working with online gambling across some of the most regulated and competitive gambling markets in the world.
Starting at Betsson Group in Malta in 2011, she has in recent years worked her way through VIP management, CRM, gamification and marketing leadership across European and North American operations. Catie was a licensed consultancy for Hard Rock Casino in New Jersey, where she held a DGE vendor license and owned the execution of the online CRM program from launch day in 2018.