Kalshi Now Controls 89% of the US Prediction Market — What It Means for California Traders

Kalshi Now Commands 89% of US Prediction Market Volume

A Bank of America report released in April 2026 confirmed what prediction market observers had suspected: Kalshi now controls approximately 89% of the US prediction market by trading volume, with weekly volume up 6% week-over-week as of the report date.

The report, which tracks federally regulated US prediction market activity, shows Kalshi's dominance accelerating — not declining — despite the launch of competing platforms from FanDuel, DraftKings, Robinhood, Fanatics, and others in late 2025.

For California traders, this data point has direct practical implications for where to focus your trading activity.

Why Kalshi's 89% Share Matters for California Traders

Liquidity follows dominance. With 89% of US prediction market volume, Kalshi has meaningfully tighter bid-ask spreads than any competing platform. On a California governor race contract, the difference between Kalshi's spread and a smaller platform's spread can be 3–5 cents per contract — a meaningful cost on larger positions.

Market depth on niche California markets. For lower-volume contracts — congressional district races, wildfire impact for specific metros, early-season baseball win totals — Kalshi's depth advantage is even more pronounced. Competing platforms often have thin or non-existent order books on these markets.

Ecosystem integrations. Kalshi's 89% share isn't just direct — it powers Robinhood Predictions (11 billion contracts in year one), Coinbase Predictions (launched January 2026), and Sleeper Predictions (launched February 2026). These integrations mean Kalshi's liquidity reaches across the entire prediction market ecosystem.

The Regulatory Battle: What Could Change Kalshi's Position

• •Massachusetts: Secured a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, ordering it to cease operations in the state. Kalshi filed an emergency motion to stay.
• •Nevada and Arizona: Both states have taken action against Kalshi, arguing it operates as an unlicensed sportsbook.
• •California: No regulatory action has been taken against Kalshi. The state has not joined the group challenging CFTC jurisdiction.

Why California traders are in a stable position: California has not moved against Kalshi or any other prediction market platform. With the CFTC actively defending prediction markets' federal jurisdiction, the legal environment for California traders is the most stable in the country.

What the 89% Share Means for Competitors

• •DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts both launched with CME Group as their exchange partner. CME order books are shared between them — neither has exclusive liquidity advantages.
• •Kalshi US focuses on sports-only and is still in beta rollout. Its global platform is the largest by volume worldwide, but the US-regulated product is nascent.
• •Crypto.com (OG) launched its standalone app in February 2026 and has shown 'roughly 40x weekly growth' according to its own reporting — but from a very small base.

For California traders, the practical takeaway: Kalshi is the default choice for liquidity-sensitive trading, while competitors offer advantages in specific niches (FanDuel for existing FanDuel users, Kalshi for zero-fee sports, Robinhood for existing investors).

Looking Ahead: California-Specific Prediction Market Growth

1. 1.August 18 primary — will generate significant California political market volume
2. 2.Wildfire season — Kalshi's category with zero peer competition
3. 3.World Cup at SoFi Stadium — Los Angeles's home matches will drive elevated local trading
4. 4.November 3 general election — biggest California political resolution day in two years

California remains uniquely well-positioned in the prediction market ecosystem: a state with one monopoly sports betting operator (Kalshi) that creates outsized demand for prediction market alternatives, no state-level regulatory challenges to the CFTC framework, and a politically, culturally, and meteorologically rich event calendar.